U.S, Government Bonds Recover a few Losses, After Strong 10-Year Treasurys Auction

The Treasury department are due to auction $24 billion in 3-year notes Tuesday, following an auction of three-month treasury bills with a yield of zero for the first time ever on Monday.



Current 10-year Treasury yield -2 bps to 2.03%.

Those forecasts were 38 and 153 basis points less, respectively, than expected by the Bloomberg consensus.

On a day bereft of critical economic data, investors were preparing to seek interest-rate guidance in the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, expected Thursday afternoon.

In the secondary market, worries over the global economy, especially the slowdown in China, have sent the 10-year Treasury yield tumbling from this year’s high of 2.5% in June. Yields rise as bond prices fall. The 0.065 percent rate for the six-month bill was the lowest since these bills averaged 0.060 percent on November. 10 of a year ago.

Fed-funds futures, used by investors and traders to place bets on central-bank policy, showed on Wednesday a 7% likelihood of a rate increase during the Fed’s October. 27-28 policy meeting, according to data from CME Group.

“That’s revealing, as if to say ‘we don’t believe you, ‘” said David Ader, head of government bond strategy at CRT Capital Group, in a note, referring to the market’s reaction to the Fed official’s comments.

Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate at a record low last month, stating that recent global developments “may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation”.

Falling inflation expectations and a strengthening dollar amid emerging-market currency weakness have recently fueled demand for long-term Treasury bonds, driving yields to their lowest level since late April.

Corporate debt also offers much higher yields than Treasury debt, making them appealing for investors in a low- yield environment.

Steven Major

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *